2025
Gupta, Ishansh; Raeisi, Seyed Taha; Correa, Sergio; Wicaksono, Hendro
Evaluating risk factors in automotive supply chains: A hybrid fuzzy AHP-TOPSIS approach with extended PESTLE framework Journal Article
In: Journal of Open Innovation: Technology, Market, and Complexity, vol. 11, iss. 1, pp. 100489, 2025.
Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: multi criteria decision making, PESTLE, supply chain management
@article{nokey,
title = {Evaluating risk factors in automotive supply chains: A hybrid fuzzy AHP-TOPSIS approach with extended PESTLE framework},
author = {Ishansh Gupta and Seyed Taha Raeisi and Sergio Correa and Hendro Wicaksono},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2199853125000241},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joitmc.2025.100489},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-03-01},
journal = {Journal of Open Innovation: Technology, Market, and Complexity},
volume = {11},
issue = {1},
pages = {100489},
abstract = {The purpose of this study is to evaluate Exogenous Risk Factors (ERFs) affecting Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) in automotive supply chains, aiming to enhance resilience against global disruptions. The primary research question focuses on identifying and prioritizing ERFs that pose the greatest threat to operational performance. A hybrid decision-making framework integrating Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process (FAHP) and Fuzzy Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (FTOPSIS) is employed. Validation is ensured through insights from 18 supply chain professionals with diverse roles and a combined 318 years of experience. The study identifies 34 ERFs, including semiconductor shortages, pandemics, and information infrastructure disruptions, and evaluates their impact on KPIs such as missing parts, backlogs, special transports, and wrong deliveries. By extending the traditional PESTLE framework with Transportation and Material dimensions, this study provides actionable strategies to mitigate risks and strengthen supply chain resilience in volatile environments.},
keywords = {multi criteria decision making, PESTLE, supply chain management},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
The purpose of this study is to evaluate Exogenous Risk Factors (ERFs) affecting Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) in automotive supply chains, aiming to enhance resilience against global disruptions. The primary research question focuses on identifying and prioritizing ERFs that pose the greatest threat to operational performance. A hybrid decision-making framework integrating Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process (FAHP) and Fuzzy Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (FTOPSIS) is employed. Validation is ensured through insights from 18 supply chain professionals with diverse roles and a combined 318 years of experience. The study identifies 34 ERFs, including semiconductor shortages, pandemics, and information infrastructure disruptions, and evaluates their impact on KPIs such as missing parts, backlogs, special transports, and wrong deliveries. By extending the traditional PESTLE framework with Transportation and Material dimensions, this study provides actionable strategies to mitigate risks and strengthen supply chain resilience in volatile environments.
2024
Hidayat, Rahmat; Ourairat, Apivut; Wicaksono, Hendro
Explainable Artificial Intelligence in Agrifood Supply Chain: State of the Art Review Proceedings Article
In: Lecture Notes in Mechanical Engineering : Flexible Automation and Intelligent Manufacturing: Manufacturing Innovation and Preparedness for the Changing World Order, Springer, 2024.
Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: agrifood, artificial intelligence, explainable AI, supply chain management
@inproceedings{nokey,
title = {Explainable Artificial Intelligence in Agrifood Supply Chain: State of the Art Review},
author = {Rahmat Hidayat and Apivut Ourairat and Hendro Wicaksono
},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-74485-3_33},
year = {2024},
date = {2024-12-13},
booktitle = {Lecture Notes in Mechanical Engineering : Flexible Automation and Intelligent Manufacturing: Manufacturing Innovation and Preparedness for the Changing World Order},
publisher = {Springer},
abstract = {The increasing pressure to feed a growing population of humans for food security, with constantly changing food consumption behavior, as well as in recent light of livestock treatment and awareness for food sustainability both economically and ecologically, also due to the challenges of climate change, lead to challenges for the industries operating in the Agrifood Supply Chain (ASC). Recent technological strides in Data Analysis, Internet of Things (IoT), Machine Learning (ML), and Artificial Intelligence (AI) have ushered in a digitized and intelligent era within the ASC, reshaping production quality, sustainability, and food longevity. However, the nascent stage of AI and ML methods within the ASC raises questions about their reliability, value, transparency, and understandability. The prevalent use of black box methods underscores the need for more explainable methodologies, as the opacity of current approaches restricts widespread applicability. This paper presents a State-of-the-Art Review of Explainable AI (XAI) and ML methods in the ASC, delving into operations spanning “Farm-to-Fork,” encompassing agriculture production, processes, quality assurance, tracking, warehousing, distribution, packaging, retailing, safety, and sustainability. The research identifies challenges and proposes research directions, offering researchers an overview of opportunities to implement XAI methods in the ASC. The exploration of coexisting problems and their solutions enhances our understanding of intelligent systems in the ASC, providing valuable insights for stakeholders’ decision-making processes.
},
keywords = {agrifood, artificial intelligence, explainable AI, supply chain management},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {inproceedings}
}
The increasing pressure to feed a growing population of humans for food security, with constantly changing food consumption behavior, as well as in recent light of livestock treatment and awareness for food sustainability both economically and ecologically, also due to the challenges of climate change, lead to challenges for the industries operating in the Agrifood Supply Chain (ASC). Recent technological strides in Data Analysis, Internet of Things (IoT), Machine Learning (ML), and Artificial Intelligence (AI) have ushered in a digitized and intelligent era within the ASC, reshaping production quality, sustainability, and food longevity. However, the nascent stage of AI and ML methods within the ASC raises questions about their reliability, value, transparency, and understandability. The prevalent use of black box methods underscores the need for more explainable methodologies, as the opacity of current approaches restricts widespread applicability. This paper presents a State-of-the-Art Review of Explainable AI (XAI) and ML methods in the ASC, delving into operations spanning “Farm-to-Fork,” encompassing agriculture production, processes, quality assurance, tracking, warehousing, distribution, packaging, retailing, safety, and sustainability. The research identifies challenges and proposes research directions, offering researchers an overview of opportunities to implement XAI methods in the ASC. The exploration of coexisting problems and their solutions enhances our understanding of intelligent systems in the ASC, providing valuable insights for stakeholders’ decision-making processes.
Fan, Xiaotong; Valilai, Omid Fatahi; Wicaksono, Hendro
Integrating Economic, Technological, and Consumer Factors for Enhanced Accuracy in Electric Vehicle Demand Forecasting: A Case Study in Germany Proceedings Article
In: Lecture Notes in Mechanical Engineering (LNME): Flexible Automation and Intelligent Manufacturing: Manufacturing Innovation and Preparedness for the Changing World Order , Springer, 2024.
Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: automotive industry, demand forecasting, machine learning, supply chain management, sustainability, timeseries analysis
@inproceedings{nokey,
title = {Integrating Economic, Technological, and Consumer Factors for Enhanced Accuracy in Electric Vehicle Demand Forecasting: A Case Study in Germany},
author = {Xiaotong Fan and Omid Fatahi Valilai and Hendro Wicaksono
},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-74485-3_50},
year = {2024},
date = {2024-12-13},
booktitle = {Lecture Notes in Mechanical Engineering (LNME): Flexible Automation and Intelligent Manufacturing: Manufacturing Innovation and Preparedness for the Changing World Order },
publisher = {Springer},
abstract = {The development of the electric vehicle industry has the potential to reduce CO
emissions significantly and overcome energy supply challenges. However, manufacturing electric cars is a complex process consisting of procurement, logistics, and assembly. Accurate demand forecasting plays an essential role in the industry’s long-term development because it effectively fulfills customer needs while mitigating the risks of overproduction. Forecasting electric vehicle demand presents a significant challenge due to limited data availability and multiple factors influencing it. Comprehensive research integrating economic, technological, and consumer dynamics into demand forecasts remains notably deficient. The main goal of this research is to develop demand forecasting of electric vehicles within Germany, considering those factors, including variables like gasoline prices, the count of installed charging stations, and the Google search index. The research involves experimentation with various models, including Prophet, SARIMA, and their variants, incorporating different combinations of exogenous variables. The results demonstrate that SARIMA and its variants outperform other models regarding predictive accuracy. This research equips electric vehicle manufacturing companies with invaluable insights into market trends and the potential impact of diverse influencing variables. With this knowledge, companies can adapt their production strategies to align with market dynamics, enhancing their competitiveness in the rapidly evolving electric vehicle landscape.},
keywords = {automotive industry, demand forecasting, machine learning, supply chain management, sustainability, timeseries analysis},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {inproceedings}
}
The development of the electric vehicle industry has the potential to reduce CO
emissions significantly and overcome energy supply challenges. However, manufacturing electric cars is a complex process consisting of procurement, logistics, and assembly. Accurate demand forecasting plays an essential role in the industry’s long-term development because it effectively fulfills customer needs while mitigating the risks of overproduction. Forecasting electric vehicle demand presents a significant challenge due to limited data availability and multiple factors influencing it. Comprehensive research integrating economic, technological, and consumer dynamics into demand forecasts remains notably deficient. The main goal of this research is to develop demand forecasting of electric vehicles within Germany, considering those factors, including variables like gasoline prices, the count of installed charging stations, and the Google search index. The research involves experimentation with various models, including Prophet, SARIMA, and their variants, incorporating different combinations of exogenous variables. The results demonstrate that SARIMA and its variants outperform other models regarding predictive accuracy. This research equips electric vehicle manufacturing companies with invaluable insights into market trends and the potential impact of diverse influencing variables. With this knowledge, companies can adapt their production strategies to align with market dynamics, enhancing their competitiveness in the rapidly evolving electric vehicle landscape.
emissions significantly and overcome energy supply challenges. However, manufacturing electric cars is a complex process consisting of procurement, logistics, and assembly. Accurate demand forecasting plays an essential role in the industry’s long-term development because it effectively fulfills customer needs while mitigating the risks of overproduction. Forecasting electric vehicle demand presents a significant challenge due to limited data availability and multiple factors influencing it. Comprehensive research integrating economic, technological, and consumer dynamics into demand forecasts remains notably deficient. The main goal of this research is to develop demand forecasting of electric vehicles within Germany, considering those factors, including variables like gasoline prices, the count of installed charging stations, and the Google search index. The research involves experimentation with various models, including Prophet, SARIMA, and their variants, incorporating different combinations of exogenous variables. The results demonstrate that SARIMA and its variants outperform other models regarding predictive accuracy. This research equips electric vehicle manufacturing companies with invaluable insights into market trends and the potential impact of diverse influencing variables. With this knowledge, companies can adapt their production strategies to align with market dynamics, enhancing their competitiveness in the rapidly evolving electric vehicle landscape.
Mechai, Nadhir; Wicaksono, Hendro
Causal Inference in Supply Chain Management: How Does Ever Given Accident at the Suez Canal Affect the Prices of Shipping Containers? Journal Article
In: Procedia Computer Science, vol. 232, pp. 3173–3182, 2024.
Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: causal AI, causal inference, supply chain management
@article{mechai2024causal,
title = {Causal Inference in Supply Chain Management: How Does Ever Given Accident at the Suez Canal Affect the Prices of Shipping Containers?},
author = {Nadhir Mechai and Hendro Wicaksono},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1877050924003119},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.procs.2024.02.133},
year = {2024},
date = {2024-09-20},
urldate = {2024-01-01},
journal = {Procedia Computer Science},
volume = {232},
pages = {3173–3182},
publisher = {Elsevier},
abstract = {In March 2021, the Ever Given, a colossal 4000-meter-long container ship with a capacity of 20,000 TEUs (Twenty-foot equivalent units), became lodged in the Suez Canal for six days, causing a significant disruption. This accident blocked approximately 400 ships, impacting not only the vessel itself and the canal but also global trade and the already strained global supply chain post-pandemic. Our research leverages causal inference techniques to rigorously assess and quantify the causal effects of the Ever Given accident on the World Container Index (WCI). We conducted experiments using time series data from eight major global shipping routes, achieving statistically significant results with a confidence level of 99.89%. This research conclusively demonstrates that the Ever Given incident at the Suez Canal had a substantial impact on shipping container prices, quantifying the effect as a remarkable 40% price increase post-exposure. By offering companies the ability to apply causal inference in understanding cause-and-effect dynamics within their supply chain networks, this study equips them with the knowledge needed to make well-informed decisions, especially in times of disruption, thus facilitating the optimization of their supply chain configuration and operations.
},
keywords = {causal AI, causal inference, supply chain management},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
In March 2021, the Ever Given, a colossal 4000-meter-long container ship with a capacity of 20,000 TEUs (Twenty-foot equivalent units), became lodged in the Suez Canal for six days, causing a significant disruption. This accident blocked approximately 400 ships, impacting not only the vessel itself and the canal but also global trade and the already strained global supply chain post-pandemic. Our research leverages causal inference techniques to rigorously assess and quantify the causal effects of the Ever Given accident on the World Container Index (WCI). We conducted experiments using time series data from eight major global shipping routes, achieving statistically significant results with a confidence level of 99.89%. This research conclusively demonstrates that the Ever Given incident at the Suez Canal had a substantial impact on shipping container prices, quantifying the effect as a remarkable 40% price increase post-exposure. By offering companies the ability to apply causal inference in understanding cause-and-effect dynamics within their supply chain networks, this study equips them with the knowledge needed to make well-informed decisions, especially in times of disruption, thus facilitating the optimization of their supply chain configuration and operations.
Habtemichael, Noah; Wicaksono, Hendro; Valilai, Omid Fatahi
NFT based Digital Twins for Tracing Value Added Creation in Manufacturing Supply Chains Journal Article
In: Procedia Computer Science, vol. 232, pp. 2841–2846, 2024.
Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: blockchain, digital twins, manufacturing, supply chain management
@article{habtemichael2024nft,
title = {NFT based Digital Twins for Tracing Value Added Creation in Manufacturing Supply Chains},
author = {Noah Habtemichael and Hendro Wicaksono and Omid Fatahi Valilai},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1877050924002771},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mex.2024.102868},
year = {2024},
date = {2024-03-20},
urldate = {2024-01-01},
journal = {Procedia Computer Science},
volume = {232},
pages = {2841–2846},
publisher = {Elsevier},
abstract = {The globalization of products and markets increases the distance between the origin of products and consumers. This leads to a condition where customers don't have information about the origins of their products. Thus, traceability has become an essential sub-system of manufacturing supply chain management. However, due to globalization and complexity of supply chain interactions among the suppliers and manufacturing enterprises, it is hard to pinpoint the exact contributions of different actors in a supply chain. Integrated supply network structure with suitable visibility and usage of real time data transfer is another area of great importance. This paper focuses on how NFT (Non-Fungible Token) coupled with smart contracts could utilize blockchain to make it easier to track the products in a supply chain. Explaining how NFT's could help in tracking the contributions of different stakeholders in a supply chain by tracking the product throughout the entire process of sourcing, production, and sale by using a digital twin. In a manufacturing supply chain enabled by NFT Technology, whenever raw materials are transferred and processed through the supply chain, an NFT would be attached to its digital twin which will capture the created values. Each NFT can easily and uniquely be known by its data stored. Data would be updated based on real time information and will enable the stakeholders to trace the product information about how much each company has contributed to the produced products. The data stored in the form of a smart contract in the blockchain prevents the data being entered from being destroyed, eliminated, or changed without permission. Thus, there is a secure data flow among different stakeholders.
},
keywords = {blockchain, digital twins, manufacturing, supply chain management},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
The globalization of products and markets increases the distance between the origin of products and consumers. This leads to a condition where customers don't have information about the origins of their products. Thus, traceability has become an essential sub-system of manufacturing supply chain management. However, due to globalization and complexity of supply chain interactions among the suppliers and manufacturing enterprises, it is hard to pinpoint the exact contributions of different actors in a supply chain. Integrated supply network structure with suitable visibility and usage of real time data transfer is another area of great importance. This paper focuses on how NFT (Non-Fungible Token) coupled with smart contracts could utilize blockchain to make it easier to track the products in a supply chain. Explaining how NFT's could help in tracking the contributions of different stakeholders in a supply chain by tracking the product throughout the entire process of sourcing, production, and sale by using a digital twin. In a manufacturing supply chain enabled by NFT Technology, whenever raw materials are transferred and processed through the supply chain, an NFT would be attached to its digital twin which will capture the created values. Each NFT can easily and uniquely be known by its data stored. Data would be updated based on real time information and will enable the stakeholders to trace the product information about how much each company has contributed to the produced products. The data stored in the form of a smart contract in the blockchain prevents the data being entered from being destroyed, eliminated, or changed without permission. Thus, there is a secure data flow among different stakeholders.
2023
Beibit, Rauan; Valilai, Omid Fatahi; Wicaksono, Hendro
Estimating the COVID-19 Impact on the Semiconductor Shortage in the European Automotive Industry using Supervised Machine Learning Proceedings Article
In: Proceedings of the 2023 10th International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Applications, pp. 302–308, 2023.
Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: machine learning, supply chain management, timeseries analysis
@inproceedings{beibit2023estimating,
title = {Estimating the COVID-19 Impact on the Semiconductor Shortage in the European Automotive Industry using Supervised Machine Learning},
author = {Rauan Beibit and Omid Fatahi Valilai and Hendro Wicaksono},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1145/3587889.3588215},
year = {2023},
date = {2023-06-09},
urldate = {2023-01-01},
booktitle = {Proceedings of the 2023 10th International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Applications},
pages = {302–308},
abstract = {The COVID-19 pandemic impacted different industrial sectors. It causes semiconductor shortage and, subsequently, on the industries downstream, such as the automotive industry. It is because of factory shutdown, increasing consumer electronic demands due to working from home, shifted focus of companies to consumer electronics, and limited logistic capacity. This research aims to analyze the influencing factors and estimate the extent of the impact of COVID-19 on the semiconductor and automotive industry in Europe using machine learning. We developed five regression models to predict the semiconductor sales and number of new passenger car registrations that reflect the development of sales in the automotive industry. Our research revealed that random forest regression is the best machine learning model for analyzing the relationship between COVID-19, semiconductor sales, and passenger car registrations. However, overall, our research found that the COVID-19 pandemic is not the only factor that impacts the semiconductor shortage in the automotive industry. The geopolitical landscape and the world’s reliance on Chinese exports are also essential influencing factors in many supply chains, including in the semiconductor and automotive sectors.
},
keywords = {machine learning, supply chain management, timeseries analysis},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {inproceedings}
}
The COVID-19 pandemic impacted different industrial sectors. It causes semiconductor shortage and, subsequently, on the industries downstream, such as the automotive industry. It is because of factory shutdown, increasing consumer electronic demands due to working from home, shifted focus of companies to consumer electronics, and limited logistic capacity. This research aims to analyze the influencing factors and estimate the extent of the impact of COVID-19 on the semiconductor and automotive industry in Europe using machine learning. We developed five regression models to predict the semiconductor sales and number of new passenger car registrations that reflect the development of sales in the automotive industry. Our research revealed that random forest regression is the best machine learning model for analyzing the relationship between COVID-19, semiconductor sales, and passenger car registrations. However, overall, our research found that the COVID-19 pandemic is not the only factor that impacts the semiconductor shortage in the automotive industry. The geopolitical landscape and the world’s reliance on Chinese exports are also essential influencing factors in many supply chains, including in the semiconductor and automotive sectors.
Priyandari, Yusuf; Sutopo, Wahyudi; Nizam, Muhammad; Wicaksono, Hendro
Vulnerability Indicators on The Operation of Electric Motorcycle - Battery Swapping Station Proceedings Article
In: 4th Asia Pacific International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Operations Management, Vietnam, 2023.
BibTeX | Tags: supply chain management
@inproceedings{priyandari2023vulnerability,
title = {Vulnerability Indicators on The Operation of Electric Motorcycle - Battery Swapping Station},
author = {Yusuf Priyandari and Wahyudi Sutopo and Muhammad Nizam and Hendro Wicaksono},
year = {2023},
date = {2023-01-01},
urldate = {2023-01-01},
booktitle = {4th Asia Pacific International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Operations Management, Vietnam},
keywords = {supply chain management},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {inproceedings}
}
2020
Wicaksono, Hendro
Data analytics in supply chain management Journal Article
In: 2020.
BibTeX | Tags: data science, machine learning, supply chain management
@article{wicaksono2020data,
title = {Data analytics in supply chain management},
author = {Hendro Wicaksono},
year = {2020},
date = {2020-01-01},
urldate = {2020-01-01},
publisher = {OSF},
keywords = {data science, machine learning, supply chain management},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}